Monday, April 1, 2019

Bayer's Hindsight Problem

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April 1, 2019

Good morning. David Meyer here, filling in for Alan from Berlin.

Last week, Bayer got hit with another big damages verdict relating to the Roundup weedkiller it got as part of its Monsanto takeover. This time it was $81 million, slightly more than the figure for the last award after Bayer’s appeal.

There are still another 11,300 cases to go. So, as I asked in a Saturday article on the subject, was the Monsanto buy a bad idea?

The story dives into the arguments for the deal and the controversy surrounding the safety of glyphosate, the active ingredient in Roundup. I also spoke to Christian Strenger, the activist investor who hopes to bring down Bayer’s board with a no-confidence motion at the German giant’s annual general meeting later this month. According to Strenger, there’s a big outstanding question about whether Monsanto should have put stronger warning labels on its products, and Bayer’s board should have taken more seriously the mounting pile of lawsuits as the merger’s closing neared.

There are really no simple answers to these conundrums. Bayer maintains that it went through proper due diligence processes. It also remains adamant that glyphosate is safe to use—juries think otherwise, but is that a function of their emotional response to the plaintiffs’ cancers?

Ultimately, it would be very hard to prove that Bayer’s board messed up from a legal perspective, given that no regulators have found glyphosate to be unsafe. However, this is a debate about business decisions, and the verdict there will be financial in nature. If those huge awards continue to pile up, it will be very difficult to look back on the takeover as a wise move.

More news below.

David Meyer
@superglaze
david@dmeyer.eu

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Chinese Manufacturing

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European Manufacturing

European PMI figures from IHS Markit were not so great, with the Eurozone's PMI down month-on-month from 49.3 to 47.5, which is the lowest figure since April 2013. Things were worse in Germany, with an 80-month low of 44.1. IHS Markit points its analytical finger at "lower demand linked to Brexit, trade uncertainty, troubles in the automotive industry and generally softer global demand." Reuters

Saudis vs. Bezos

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Turkish Polls

Turkey's stock market slid Monday morning (before recovering) and the lira took a dip after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's Justice and Development Party lost the capital, Ankara, in municipal elections. It's still too tight to call, but the party may also have lost Istanbul. The losses may cause Erdogan to step up his populist policies. CNBC

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Chinese Fentanyl

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J&J Shampoo

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This edition of CEO Daily was edited by David Meyer. Find previous editions here, and sign up for other Fortune newsletters here.

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