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Is Ukraine tipping into civil war?
5/5/2014 9:26:59 PM
- Analysts say civil war in Ukraine is a real possibility
- Violence also heightens concerns over Russia's intentions
- Ukraine's military is dwarfed by Russia's
(CNN) -- Unrest intensified over the weekend in Ukraine, further raising fears of a civil war or invasion by Russia. On Friday, 46 people died in clashes in the port city of Odessa. On Sunday, pro-Russian forces stormed the city's police station and secured the freedom of protesters who had been arrested as part of Friday's unrest. Here's a look at the situation on the ground in Ukraine and what might happen should the violence continue to escalate:
Is Ukraine sliding toward civil war?
It's a very real possibility, analysts say. Russia appears to be guiding the country in that direction by inciting unrest between pro-Russian interests and Ukrainian forces, said former U.S. diplomat Christopher Hill. By sowing the seeds of unrest, Russia can make it appear that the government in Kiev is incapable of governing. "So I think the Russians have a real interest in keeping this type of crisis going, hoping it can even go to a kind of civil war and basically justify whatever it is that they want to do," Hill said Sunday on CNN.
Will Russia send in troops to support its interests in eastern Ukraine?
Russian officials have said all along that they reserve the right to send troops into Ukraine to protect Russian citizens and Russian speakers against violence and discrimination by what they've termed the fascist, neo-Nazi government in Kiev. The risk of such an intervention will increase if Ukraine's military operation against pro-Russian forces results in significant casualties, IHS Jane's concluded last week. The latest U.S. intelligence shows no signs of an imminent invasion, a senior U.S. official told CNN.
Would it take advantage of the opportunity to annex a pro-Russian part of Moldova?
Although there's no sign of any such move, NATO's commander, Gen. Philip Breedlove, said in late March that he feared Russia had amassed enough troops to roll across Ukraine and take Transnistria, a separatist, pro-Russian region of Moldova. "We know that capability absolutely exists to do that and cause that problem," he said March 23. "We don't know about the intent. What we do see is some of the same rhetoric that was used when they went into Crimea. So if that is the first intention of -- indication of intent, then that's very worrisome."
What do we know about the capabilities of the Ukrainian military?
Ukraine has about 139,000 troops, 735 tanks and 25 ships. It spent about $1.6 billion on its military in 2012. Compare that to Russia, which spent $78 billion on its military in 2012 and has 774,500 troops. Analysts say Ukraine's military is built more to guard against internal unrest and is not geared toward preventing an invasion.
Wasn't Ukraine once part of Russia?
It has spent more time as part of Russia or the Soviet Union than it has as an independent country since the late 1700s, when the Russian empire conquered it. It was briefly independent shortly after World War I but then became part of the Soviet Union, where it remained until that regime ended in 1991.
Diver dies while searching Sewol ferry in South Korea
5/6/2014 1:22:48 AM
- NEW: Nearly 130 divers are searching the sunken ship
- Not including the diver, the disaster's death toll rises to 263
- More than three dozen people remain missing
- The South Korean President consoled families over the weekend
Seoul, South Korea (CNN) -- A diver searching the sunken Sewol ferry died Tuesday, according to South Korea's Government Rescue Headquarters.
"A civilian diver, Lee, lost the communication line at 25 meters under the sea five minutes into his first dive," spokesman Koh Myung-suk said.
"By the time his colleagues went to save him, Lee was unconscious and unable to breathe by himself," Koh said.
Lee, whose full name was not provided, was helicoptered to a hospital where he was pronounced dead, the spokesman added.
Park In-ho, head of the hospital where Lee died, said the diver's blood was tested and appeared normal except for high potassium. His chest X-ray also showed no sign of irregularity.
Not including the diver, the death toll in the ferry disaster has risen to 263, with 39 people still missing, the government reported.
Over the weekend, South Korean President Park Geun-hye visited the port where the rescue operation is based to console families and encourage divers.
Nearly 130 divers are combing the ship, looking for the remaining missing bodies.
The search-and-rescue operation has turned into a grueling recovery of corpses. No one has been found alive since the ferry sank April 16 with a passenger load largely made up of high school students on a field trip.
The work has become even more difficult because divers have faced closed cabin doors blocked by debris.
Corralling the debris has been difficult for search teams.
Mattresses and clothing from the ship have been found up to 9 miles (15 km) away from the accident site, said Park Seung-ki, a spokesman for the rescue operation.
Large stow and trawler nets will be set up around the sunken ship to catch items that may float away, he said. At the same time, some three dozen ships will be clearing an oil spill from the ferry, which is threatening the livelihood of the local fishermen.
The ferry sank en route from Incheon to the resort island of Jeju, off the nation's southwestern coast.
CNN's Stella Kim reported from Seoul; Ed Payne wrote from Atlanta
Victim's haunting cry for mom
5/6/2014 1:25:30 AM
The words and images from the cell phone of a girl who perished on the South Korean ferry convey the rising panic aboard.
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